US-Mexico border security

Audio: Welcome to the World of Intelligence, a podcast for you to discover the latest analysis of global military and security trends within the open source defense intelligence community. Now, onto the episode.

Sean Corbett: Hello everybody, and welcome to this edition of Janes World of Intelligence podcast. I'm Sean Corbett, and I'll be hosting today's edition. I'd like to welcome, again, Kate Cox as my co- host for today, and she'll be acting as the chief inquisitor. I'm also delighted to welcome back two of Janes' finest analysts who have actually appeared on this podcast series, I think, in one case, a couple of times before, and, the other case, once. So firstly, we have Matt Henman, who heads up the America's Desk in Janes Country Intelligence Department. Hello, Matt.

Matt Henman: Hi, Sean. Hi, Kate.

Sean Corbett: And secondly, we have Estefania Dominguez, a senior analyst who also is within the American's Regional Desk. Hello, Estefania.

Estefania Dominguez: Hi. Thank you for having me.

Sean Corbett: Great. So, regular listeners will recall the last time that we hosted this team was in July 2024, immediately before the Venezuelan elections, when we discussed what we thought was going to happen during and immediately after the election. As I've said many times before, this type of predictive analysis is really the nirvana of what we try to achieve in the intelligence world. And of course, I'm very pleased that you are exactly right in your assessment, both of the result on the day, and also, what happened next. So, well done, and no pressure to get it right today. Today's subject is another very topical one actually, and one in which our colleagues across the pond are particularly focused right now. And that's the ongoing security situation in Mexico, particularly with reference to serious and organized crime. Clearly, this has been a serious internal security challenge for decades and various initiatives have been tried, and perhaps, failed to successfully address it. And of course, one of the most important things is the knock on impacts on its northern border and even wider, which is obviously a priority for the US administration right now, and we might explore that in a little bit more detail later. So, although this could be labeled as nontraditional threat, it's an excellent example of how to demonstrate to use open source intelligence in a wider format using all the tradecraft. I've used the word already. And without further ado then, I'll hand it over to Kate, who will expertly orchestrate the discussion.

Kate Cox: Thank you, Sean. And great to have Matt and Stephanie on with us today. So as Sean says, serious and organized crime is a nontraditional security threat, but it's an important one as we'll discuss. Today, we'll talk about the challenges and responses we're seeing at the US- Mexico border, what this means for international security. And as always, we'll lift the lid on the tradecraft that our experts apply at Janes. So, why does this matter? Sean, Estefania, why should the international community and our listeners care about serious and organized crime at the border?

Sean Corbett: Thanks, Kate. So for me, I think there's several elements to this. The first one for me is, it's in the illustration of how we assess the impact of various strategies that have happened over the last decade and longer, actually, to counter this type of crime. For example, how the military and law enforcement work together or don't work together? Which policies have worked and which haven't? But it also allows us, at a more contemporary level, the ability to track trends in both the types of drugs that are being trafficked, what is being trafficked, the organized crime that's going on. And also, the tactics, techniques, and procedures that the cartels and gangs are using right now. They're adapting all the time. It's quite remarkable, actually, that they're starting to get much more technically proficient, much better organized. So they're using drones, electronic countermeasures, even submersibles. So, they're getting far more sophisticated. And that matters, really to, for the good guys, if you like, to actually develop their own countermeasures themselves. There's all those examples as well, of course, as the internal security of an important regional country.

Kate Cox: Great. Estefania?

Estefania Dominguez: Serious and organized crime, and related activities like drug trafficking are also transnational in nature. So, all countries are, in some way or another, affected by it, because it interconnects all countries. Mexico happens to share one of its biggest borders with one of the most powerful countries on earth, which is the US. And whatever happens there has an impact on the aspect... Well, it has an impact on the region, but also on the lives of Mexicans, including in terms of social, economic, political, defense. And diplomacy, particularly. Serious and organized crime activities not only connect both countries, but it's also a source of tensions. Serious and organized crime is huge. It's a huge threat to the national security of Mexico. But also, under the administration of President Trump, this has become the focus of foreign US policy. It has been the focus for decades now, but the most recent designation of OCGs as terrorist groups has turned this issue into a more sensitive one. So particularly, this is in the realm of political and diplomatic realm where it has lots of significance.

Kate Cox: Absolutely. So, we'll definitely return to Sean's point around OCG's use of technology and their adapting tactics later on in the podcast. And your interconnected nature of the problem point is really interesting, Estefania. Let's also talk about the scale of the problem. Estefania, can you tell us a little bit more about that, and about the types of crime- related trends that we're seeing?

Estefania Dominguez: Right. So as I mentioned, the border is very significant. It's very important for the economy of both countries. It is a huge source of revenue. That means that it will attract the interest of organized crime groups attempting to control routes for the benefit of their activities. So, it's not only an important economic region for legal activities, but also illegal ones. So the main form of criminality, the biggest one, is drug trafficking from Mexico to the US, but there's also weapons trafficking or arms trafficking from the US to Mexico. There are other types of activities like stealing fuel, which at the moment, is one of the biggest challenges that the Mexican government is facing. And there's lots of human trafficking and people smuggling, but the biggest one is drug trafficking. So when you have a country as big as the US, which is one of the biggest consumer of illicit substances, there will be a lot of incentives for organized crime groups to cross the illicit substances to the other side of the border. So, this is a very active border with several organized crime groups disputing for control of trafficking routes towards the north. So, it has a huge impact for the national security of both countries. But there's also one thing that we need to keep in mind. So drug cartels, if we're talking about drug cartels, are not monolithic. So these are not single and very well- structured entities. Drug cartels are formed of several factions that are not necessarily loyal to the branding. So often, you have factions disintegrating, splintering, fighting for control and power of their own factions. One day, they might be allies, and the next one, they will be rivals. So, there are a lot of factions present on the border. Mostly, urban areas have the most challenges with security- related incidents than other regions that could be more hostile geographically speaking. The desert, for example. There are not many violence incidents occurring there. Each region on the border has a different groups present and the dynamics are, as well, as present, as well as the intensity or the scale of the violence. So, it depends.

Kate Cox: Some really interesting points to unpack there. And Matt, please jump in.

Matt Henman: I think just it's worth emphasizing what Estefania said in terms of the groups are not monolithic in the way they operate, and the way in which we should understand the threat posed. I think the death toll, typically, from an organized crime perspective in Mexico, is so large that it become... You almost... The scale of it is so sheer that it's sometimes hard to zoom in and understand the different trends, what is happening. It's worth bearing in mind that across the mid 2010s when the vast majority of the West was laser- focused in on Iraq and Syria, the death toll from the drug war in Mexico far eclipsed the death toll from these conflicts in the Middle East, but it didn't get anywhere near the amount of attention. And I think it's critical to understand in the same way that we seek to understand, you say Sean, the TTPs, the ideologies, the motivations, and distinctions between groups in the way they operate from a terrorism and insurgency perspective, is vitally important that we understand similarly the different groups, the motivations, the organizational structures, et cetera, to better understand the threat posed to national security, both directly in Mexico. But again, as we've alluded to, how that threat then pervades not just across the border into North America or into the United States, but also across the Atlantic into Europe? Where drugs rooted from South America play a critical role in terms of state stability, national security in Western Europe. So, I think the work that Estefania is leading on in terms of helping us better understand on a day- to- day, week- to- week, month- to- month basis, key trends in developments in organized crime. And security on the US- Mexico border is vital.

Sean Corbett: There's some really strong points there actually, Matt. I think just returning just to the sheer scale of it, which I think many people... And you mentioned the number of deaths. I mean, we're talking about, from what I understand, 30,000 deaths due to this activity, every year since 2018. Pretty static. That is, as you say, much larger in places that seem to be more interesting, like the Middle East. But again, back to the scale, I think I read recently that something like a third of Mexican territory, and Mexico is not a small country, is actually controlled, in some way, by cartels or groups. And I think the other aspect that I think that we're seeing right now, is almost a fragmentation and a militarization, without exaggerating too much, of some of these groups and cartels who are becoming increasingly independent of violence. So, all of that does not really bode well for a stable future.

Kate Cox: I'd like to return to something Estefania mentioned earlier on in her response. She talks about the scale of the problem and, particularly of drug trafficking, and some of those cross- border impacts. How wide- reaching are the security and economic impacts of serious and organized crime at the border? And Matt, I'll come to you first, and then to Estefania.

Matt Henman: I think you only need to look at the inordinate focus that the new Trump administration has put on the southern border to understand the importance and the impact that organized crime in Mexico has on the national security and state stability situation in the US. The first thing Trump did was declare an emergency. They've launched all kinds of new initiatives to really emphasize the need to crack down on the trafficking of, I say, all kinds of narcotics, but particularly fentanyl, into the US. You only have to look at the opioid crisis in terms of the inordinate death toll, to understand there is a serious impact right there off the bat. But in terms of the money being made, as Estefania made reference to the US from a consumer perspective, is a incredibly lucrative market for organized crime groups. There is a ongoing financial incentive for them to be continuing to traffic drugs, et cetera, into the US. So, it become a matter, not just of economic importance, but also health and national security for the US, to take additional steps or extra measures to try and address this. Address this threat that is coming across the border.

Kate Cox: Great. Estefania, did you have some thoughts to add to that, too?

Estefania Dominguez: Yeah. I'm talking on the Mexican perspective on this Mexican side of the border. As we mentioned, the biggest issue about these activities has to do with the violence that comes with this, and the violence has an impact on the internal stability and the economic stability. This economic stability can be local. Like, you have local businesses closing because there are many events of violence, making it difficult for people to leave even their homes, as we're seeing in Sinaloa at the moment. These damages the local economy. You also have organized crime groups targeting local businesses, to force them to pay taxes in exchange of protection. So, this has an impact on the local economy because some people just choose to close their businesses and move somewhere else in Mexico, or even move to the US. And speaking on a bigger scale, for the Mexican economy as a whole, it also has consequences for the operations of transnational corporations, for example, that are present in Mexico. So, the security issue is, often, one of the things that these companies raise when considering investing in the country. For example, these companies need to account for the revenue losses of transporting products, because, often, the lorry drivers are the target of extortion and kidnapping. And OCGs have instilled these lorries. So over time, these becomes detrimental to the Mexican economy.

Kate Cox: So before we move on to discussion around tradecraft and how OSINT can help us better understand this area, I'd like to return to something Sean mentioned on tactics and the use of technology. So we can see that OCGs are increasingly using technology, including drones, in their operations, particularly in the northern Mexican states. Estefania, I wanted to come to you, to tell us a little bit more about the role of technology in enabling OCG activity. And then Matt, if you'd be happy to tell us about how US response actors are adapting to this.

Estefania Dominguez: Right. So in Mexico, serious and organized crime groups adapt very quickly. They're very efficient, in a way, to adapt, technologically speaking. They don't have to deal, for example, with bureaucracy, like a formal institution. They're very, very efficient, in a way, of adapting to technology. This is mostly because the more the Mexican security forces increase their capabilities to fight this threat, the more they have incentives to make sure that they adapt to these new technologies. So we often seen, for example, serious and organized crime are using a lot of UAVs for surveillance. And mostly, I think that's one of the most favorite activities that we have seen replicated in other countries in the region, is using UAVs to drop explosives from there. It's a very efficient way when they're clashing with security forces or rival OCGs. They're also using these tactics to attack civilian population. It also means that they acquire technology to counter the UAVs from rival OCGs and from security forces. So, they acquire these equipment to do that, and can be of the very sophisticated. For us, it is a challenge to... It is very difficult to say if this technology is because they stole it from the stock from Mexican security forces, or if they were able to purchase it online or via third parties. Because we often see, at the same time, Mexican security forces acquiring the same type of technology, especially to counter UAVs. We see one specific type of equipment used by the Mexican security forces, and on the same month, we can see... We found images of members of an organized crime group with exact same equipment. Not the same one, but the same equipment. The same company, the same model. Including the same model. So, it is very interesting to see how they very quickly adapt to what security forces have and rival forces as well. Technology is a fundamental part for serious and organized crime to make sure that they're protecting their own interests. So, yeah.

Kate Cox: Interesting to hear about how the groups adapt and response to their rivals. But Matt, on the US side, how are response actors also adapting?

Matt Henman: As Estefania said, it's a similar kind of cat and mouse game. Often, as we see in the terrorism insurgency world, we see, similarly, in the organized crime world, new technologies emerge, threat actors take advantage of those, and state authorities then have to rush to mitigate that capability. There is then an evolution of those kind of capabilities, and growing ways in which groups are able to exploit gaps or holes in state counter capabilities. I think the key thing to emphasize with the US, and I think a big concern that's going to be... Or a concern that has been at the forefront of the US national security perspective for a while, has been the porosity of the border when it comes to UAV flights cross- border. Obviously, the vast majority of illegal narcotics being smuggled into the US continue to be at land crossings, in vehicles on people, et cetera. But there is a growing trend towards the use, and has been for several years, of UAVs being used to move drugs across the border. Now for some drugs, methamphetamines, kind of cocaine, obviously, it's diminishing returns to an extent in that you need, obviously, quite a large UAV to be able to fly enough cocaine or methamphetamine across the border to make it worthwhile. But then if you look at fentanyl, which has obviously on a value per weight basis, is far higher than cocaine or methamphetamine. It becomes much more lucrative to use small. And we should emphasize very much commercially available, very easy to purchase without any kind of restriction drones, to fly a small packet of thiofentanyl across the border to earn worth tens of thousands of dollars. And we are seeing these groups evolve to use methods and new technologies that have precluded ways in which the US has previously sought to mitigate that threat. So, being able to use drones that are modified for increased range, or that operate using pre- programmed GPS coordinates to obviate the need for there to be someone there, or in the region, piloting the drone, et cetera. As I said, this cat and mouse game has gone on for the last few years now, but we've seen, under the Trump administration, a more concerted, direct series of actions being taken to try and address this threat. So obviously, as I mentioned earlier, national emergency, the border declared when Trump took office fairly soon after launched this major operation. Operation Take Back America, which has a very strong aim of destroying the drug cartels, preventing the inflow of illegal narcotics across the border. And as we've seen, obviously, in the big, beautiful bill, massive increase in funding for security at the border for trying to enforce and make the operational goals of that operation reality. We're also tracking on a regular basis. There are regular, now, executive orders, executive actions coming out of the White House. And oftentimes, buried in these are little provisions that taken together cumulatively underline the strategy that is emerging from the Trump administration to tackle the drug cartels. So, increasing action around... Very much tightening the use of or the ability to use UAVs in the vicinity of the US border. The increasing... The expansion of military zones along the border to create additional mechanisms through which the administration can try and tackle drug cartels. As Estefania had made reference to earlier, the designation of key organized crime groups, not just Mexican groups, but some key Latin American organized crime groups as foreign terrorist organizations. As a means to generate further options or additional courses of action available to the Trump administration in terms of being able to directly challenge, either kinetically or through going after the economic resources of these groups. All these new methods to try and more adequately tackle the threat that is posed.

Kate Cox: And we'll return to a couple of questions on the response side shortly, but turning to our tradecrafts, I think Estefania, you started alluding to some of the OSINT challenges that we encounter sometimes. So for example, it being challenging to understand how OCGs acquire technologies in this area. So, how can OSINT help us better understand the dynamics of serious and organized crime at the border?

Estefania Dominguez: The way that we do it in Janes is that we pay attention to the violence events. There are many techniques and methodologies in OSINT to approach this phenomenon. For example, some focus on network research to identify who is leading what faction. And when a leader is arrested or killed, they try to track who might take over or try to identify who they are connected to. The way that we chose to do it is by studying the patterns of violence, for the case of Mexico and Latin America. We do not focus on individuals. We only focus on violence impacting national stability because these events are facts that occur in a place at a time. From this information, we can know many important things about serious and organized crime dynamics, such as we are able to identify the types of weapons that they use, the technology. The types of explosives, if they're buying it or making it at home. The types of vehicles that they have. If they're targeting security forces, if they're targeting civilian population or a rival OCG. It also... Organized crime group, sorry. And it also says a lot about the geography. The geography is very important because it says what they're disputing and where they're disputing, what route, what can the geography tell you about these dynamics. Right? If there are highways, if it's a mountain, it says a lot about where the activity is taking place. Then, we combine this with the seizures data that is mostly provided by security forces. This information says a lot about the weapons. The types of explosives, specifically. The types of UAVs. The types of drugs that they're trafficking, and where on the border they're trafficking, because it's not always the same. If there are clandestine laboratories to produce illicit substances, what substances? Cultivation areas. What drugs are they producing in Mexico, and which ones they're bringing from the south? Of Latin America, the South America. It also says we found lots of information about semi- submersibles, right? These have been... Where they are seizing these semi- submersibles? Where they're going? We track this information across Latin America. And seizures, because seizures are really good at providing the information about all the new technologies that cartels are using. And on top of that, we also look at social media, and particularly, propaganda from cartel members. Because this is an interesting source to track not only the new technologies that they like to show, to tell the world that they're using. But also, it says a lot about who they're targeting as well. However, we do take this information with a lot of caution because these things shouldn't be ever taken as face value. It needs to be properly verified, just as all the images from seizures and reports of violence seizures. Because OSINT is a great tool to gather a lot of information and to inform of violence patterns that can impact the stability of a country, but it's also a disinformation tool. We have to be very aware of that.

Kate Cox: So social media verification, various different types of data that you're looking at. Sean, I'm sure this is sparking all kinds of thoughts in the tradecraft side.

Sean Corbett: Yeah. No, and that was very well put by Estefania, and I'm not sure I got too much to offer additional that. But what we're looking at, really, is the same as any other problem set that we look for in the open source intelligence thing, is making sure we've got the accuracy, veracity, and the completeness of the data. And that means exactly as you said, it's got to be verified. So yes, social media platforms, they're particularly good at sentiment and analysis. So, while one person might be making something up, if you get a whole group of people that sentiment analysis can be actually quite strong. The local international news reports, as I've always say, the first report is generally wrong or not complete. But it still gives you really good tipping start to say, " Okay, what's really happened here?" And start to get into it. Even things like satellite imagery, geospatial tools, are particularly good at this sort of thing. Exactly as you've said, if you are looking at all these trends over many years, you can very quickly come up with a trend analysis to find out, " Okay, what's changed? What is staying the same? Et cetera." One thing, I think, you mentioned is the public databases and court records, which are likely to be more accurate than some of the government reporting. I'm not saying that all the government reporting is not right, but some of it can be skewed in certain ways. So, there's a lot to go out there here. Pattern life analysis, timeline. I like heat map generations. I'm a very visual person. But in terms of the type of data that you're able to get, you can very quickly come up with those types of trends.

Kate Cox: One interesting thing on the tradecraft side as well is... Estefania, I'm aware you work with a Mexico- based series and organized crime events collector with local access and insights. Could you talk to us a little bit about how that works, and the benefits this brings for your analysis?

Estefania Dominguez: Yeah. So one of the biggest issues that we have when doing OSINT in this particular topic is the amount of information available that cannot be verified. There's a lot of people interested in the topic, and people who spend a lot of time online writing blogs and tweeting about the topic. So this means that a lot of the information is not properly verified under... Lots of misinformation. So, the most important thing when we're doing with this, when we're working and approaching this, is that we always do... The most important thing is verification, verification, verification. Every single piece of information has to make sense and must be verified, because the evidence has to inform the analyst. So, the methodology that we chose to collect events is very important. We have an expert on organized crime based in Mexico. This person has a lot of specialized knowledge on drug trafficking and organized crime in Mexico. This person is also based in Mexico. So, the person gathers all these events for us, and then we proceed to verify it. We check different sources to make sure that what we provide is accurate and verifiable information. There's also another layer of cultural sensitivity. And also, that's another reason why we have someone who is in the country collecting these events, because we need to make sure that we're correctly capturing and interpreting the information. Like, the language used in threatening messages that are left in crime scenes by serious and organized crime groups, these are commonly known as narco messages. Sometimes they're not very well written, and you need someone who actually knows this slang or the local slang to understand the message and who is directed to, because sometimes it's not that very obvious. But yeah, there is one big challenge when doing OSINT in serious and organized crime research because it can be very tricky to distinguish the truth from misinformation and disinformation. And drug cartels do lot of propaganda and disinformation, and this is why it is very important for all the analysts that we have in the team, doing research on serious and organized crime, to never, ever take anything as face value and to always be skeptical at first. It's always best to wait until there are other pieces of evidence to prove something that it happened, rather than try to replicate what is out there because everyone is just saying it.

Kate Cox: I think what you've all mentioned, the verification, the local access, the cultural and understanding, all of that is so important. Before we wrap up with a few takeaways, one final question from me, which is what's next? So, what's next for border security? Is the scale and type of criminal activity that we're seeing at the border likely to change? Estefania, I'll come to you first.

Estefania Dominguez: With organized crime groups continuing to splinter in Mexico, we will continue to see high levels of violence, particularly in Sinaloa. Sinaloa is not a state on the border, but it's very close to it. And the dynamics that occur in Sinaloa impacts the whole border. So also, with Trump's response to shield the border, it has decreased a lot the activity. Activities like human smuggling, these are activities that some organized crime groups participated in or still participate, but in a lower scale. This means that they're starting to move to other activities like kidnapping local populations on the Mexican side of the border. Also, drug trafficking is very unlikely to decrease or stop anytime soon. In fact, I think it's more likely it will increase.

Kate Cox: Great. Thank you. All right, let's wrap up with a key takeaway from today's discussion. So I'll come to you first, Matt, and then Estefania, Sean, and then I will close this off. So Matt, what's your key takeaway?

Matt Henman: Organized crime is vital to understand from a national security impact perspective. From a threat relevance and an impact perspective, it's one that is vitally important that we do not lose track of and that we keep well on top of.

Kate Cox: Thank you. Estefania?

Estefania Dominguez: Verification is the most important thing an analyst should be doing, especially when researching serious and organized crime activity. Because when there are no certainties on the information that an analyst finds, an analyst should be always be able to say that this is an uncertainty and be very transparent about that, because the transparency in this type of work, in OSINT research, is very important. Because others will read your work and they should be able to verify it as well. Everything should be verifiable. So yeah, that's my main takeaway.

Kate Cox: Thank you. Sean?

Sean Corbett: As over my sandwiches have been eaten, but I think that the general point that it doesn't really matter what the character of the problem set is for the analyst. If they're doing it properly, they've got to add the right level of the right tradecraft. All the things I've been talking about, and you've mentioned it really well, Estefania. Without the rigor, you can't get underneath the headlines, and therefore you're never going to get to the ground truth which is really what we're talking about. I would cheekily add just one more that we talk about the democratization of data. But also, there's democratization of tactics, techniques, and procedures. And techniques, in terms of OSINT. So whatever we are being able to use, you can be sure that the OCGs are probably developing the same sort of capabilities in terms of trying to stay one step ahead of the legal authorities. And that's got to be worry. So, back to Matt's chicken and... Cat and mouse piece, it really is adapt, counter, adapt, counter. So, you've got to keep looking at this all the time and constantly if you want the chance to understand it.

Kate Cox: Yeah, really good points. Mine is focused on the value of people. So I think we talk a lot about the role of technology and tradecraft on the podcast, which is, of course, a very important theme. I think this episode also highlights the value of people and local access in working in challenging OSINT environments. So as we can see through Estefania's work with that in- country expert collecting data on serious and organized crime events. So, this person we work with is just one of the more than 250 experts who make up our global network of contributors that we're lucky to have access to at Janes. So with that, we'll close. A big thank you always to our experts, and of course, to our listeners. See you next time.

Audio: Thanks for joining us this week on the World of Intelligence. Make sure to visit our website, janes. com/ podcast, where you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Google Podcasts. So, you'll never miss an episode.