Janes

In this podcast Janes analysts F Xavier Casals and Claire Chu share their expertise with Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to explore the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. They discuss the analytic tools and insight they use to provide a framework for indicator and warning analysis and why a non-military invasion may be more likely.

F Xavier Casals is a Lead Analyst within the Northeast Asia and Oceania Country Intelligence team at Janes. He is the primary analyst for China and Taiwan and has been studying China and the wider East Asia region since 2012, specialising in China’s foreign and security policies, China’s politics, and China’s outlook on national security. Xavier has travelled extensively around China, and has spent a year studying and working in the country. He is fluent in Mandarin Chinese and speaks nine other languages at different levels, including Catalan, Spanish, English, Italian, Greek, Farsi, French, Arabic, and German. Xavier holds an MA in Chinese Studies from Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona and an MA in War Studies from King’s College London.

F Xavier Casals

Lead Analyst - APAC, Janes

Claire Chu is a senior China analyst at Janes Group. She specializes in the geopolitical and national security implications of China’s global economic activity. She recently joined Janes in 2022 after the company’s acquisition of RWR Advisory Group, where she was in the same role, leading the firm’s China practice. Claire launched RWR’s Belt and Road Monitor in 2017, which provides a comprehensive biweekly overview of China’s overseas trade and investment activities and policy developments, and served as the editor until 2020. Claire previously held research roles at think tanks including the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Berlin, Germany, the Project 2049 Institute in Arlington, and the Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC. She has also worked on rule of law and governance issues at the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC) and at Human Rights Watch. Claire has testified before the U.S. House of Representatives and her commentary has been featured in major media outlets in the United States, Europe, and Asia, including the Financial Times, Bloomberg, Voice of America, Foreign Policy, and Nikkei Asia.

Claire Chu

Senior China Analyst, Janes

Likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Janes delivers validated open-source defence intelligence across four core capability areas threat, equipment, defence industry and country that are aligned with workflows across the defence industry, national security and government.

The World of Intelligence

Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett reflect on a year packed with podcasts. In the 26 episodes published in 2024, alongside their panel of guests, they explored emerging and current threats, global security trends, and the impact of misinformation, disinformation and artificial intelligence on open-source intelligence and society.

Round up 2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models are becoming a mainstay in our daily lives, but how are these tools being used in delivering open-source intelligence? Janes Red Team Analyst Harry Lawson explores the role these tools have in intelligence tradecraft, uncovering the balance between cutting-edge technology and established analytical standards.

 
Harry Lawson is the current Red Team Analyst at Janes. Using established intelligence tradecraft, he has created a red teaming process that assess Janes’ capability to handle and answer complex intelligence-driven customer requirements against other open-source content providers and large language models. He previously managed quality assurance for equipment data as part of Janes’ Defence Data Development team.

Harry Lawson

Red Team Analyst, Janes

Large Language Models (LLMs) cure or curse for OSINT?

Rachel Minyoung Lee, Senior Fellow for the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North and Cristina Varriale, Janes lead analyst - APAC join Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett to explore the closed environment of North Korea, its changing strategic allegiances and what the reported deployment of North Korea troops to Russia means for global stability.

Rachel Minyoung Lee is a Senior Fellow for the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North, where she focuses on North Korea’s domestic developments and foreign policy. She is also co-chair of the Steering Committee for the North Korea Economic Forum at the George Washington Institute for Korean Studies.
 
Lee was a North Korean propaganda analyst with Open Source Enterprise in the US government from 2000 to 2019. During that time, she wrote on a broad range of North Korean issues, from leadership, domestic politics and economy, and foreign policy, to social and cultural developments. As Analysis Team Lead, Lee headed a team of collection officers and analysts to collect on, research, and analyse North and South Korean issues with implications for Pyongyang’s regime stability and regional security

Rachel Minyoung Lee

Senior Fellow for the Stimson Center’s Korea Program and 38 North

Cristina Varriale is Janes lead analyst on the APAC Country Intelligence team. Before joining Janes in April 2022, Cristina spent six years in the Proliferation and the Nuclear Policy Team at the RUSI think tank, culminating in a short period as acting director. Prior to RUSI, she worked with the International Center for Security Analysis at the Policy Institute, Kings College, London. Her work primarily focuses on researching and analysing North Korea's domestic security and stability, the country's WMD programs, foreign relationships and the implications for securities. 

Cristina Varriale

Janes lead analyst, APAC

North Korea - The hardest OSINT environment?

In the second part of this podcast Joseph Hatfield PhD and David Gioe PhD continue to explore the challenge of defining open-source intelligence (OSINT), why it should be considered a fundamental form of intelligence and why now might be the right time to redefine OSINT.

Joseph M. Hatfield, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Cyber Science at the United States Naval Academy. He is a retired naval intelligence officer with over a decade of experience providing intelligence support to combat operations. His academic research focuses on cyber policy, human factors in cybersecurity, intelligence studies, philosophy and international relations.

Joseph Hatfield, PhD

Assistant Professor in the Department of Cyber Science at the United States Naval Academy

David V. Gioe, PhD, is a British Academy global professor in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. He is the director of studies for the Cambridge Security Initiative and is co-convener of its international security and intelligence program. He is a former CIA analyst and operations officer and a US Navy veteran.

David Gioe, PhD

British Academy global professor in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London

Is it time to redefine OSINT? - part two

Joseph Hatfield PhD and David Gioe PhD join Harry and Sean to discuss the challenge of defining open-source intelligence alongside other intelligence disciplines and why now might be the right time to redefine OSINT.

Is it time to redefine OSINT? - Part one

Harry Kemsley and Sean Corbett are joined by Claire Fuchs, an analyst on the Janes Geoeconomic Influence and Threat Intelligence (GITI) team, to discuss why the nuances of language and linguistics are important to the interpretation of open-source intelligence (OSINT). As a speaker of nine languages Claire explores the need to approach language with caution and the limitations of artificial intelligence (AI) in interpreting and translating language.

Claire Astrid Fuchs is an analyst on Janes GITI team, which tracks global Chinese and Russian investment. Per her linguistic and regional expertise, she focuses on Chinese and Russian foreign direct investment and military co-operation in the Middle East, North Africa, and wider Persian-speaking region. In addition to her regional emphasis, she focuses on countries with complicated security apparatuses, such as Syria, Pakistan, and Libya. On GITI, she manages the entity risk tracker, contributes to and co-manages the China country reports, directs entity entries, and contributes to various reports.
 
Prior to joining Janes, she worked in refugee resettlement with Afghan, Iraqi, and Syrian refugees in Texas. 

Recent Episodes

SEASON 1

Likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Round up 2024

Large Language Models (LLMs) cure or curse for OSINT?

North Korea - The hardest OSINT environment?

Is it time to redefine OSINT? - part two

Is it time to redefine OSINT? - Part one

Language and Linguistics in OSINT

About The Show

The World of Intelligence

Harry Kemsley

President of Government & National Security, Janes